Washington, DC (Wednesday, March 30, 2022): Today, the federal government released gross output (GO) – the measure of total spending in the economy – for the 4th quarter 2021. Real GO rose 3.8% (after inflation), which was another indication of a slowdown in the economy compared to the 4.4% growth in the previous quarter.
Furthermore, the GO growth rate is now less than real GDP (6.9%). This is the first time in over a year that quarterly GO grew less than GDP, a clear sign of a slumping economy. It confirms the “GDP Now” forecast of less than 1% growth for the first quarter.
GO is a leading indicator of economic growth (GDP) in subsequent quarters. As David Ranson, chief economist for the private forecasting firm HCWE & Co., states, “Movements in gross output serve as a leading indicator of movements in GDP.” See his summary of GO’s value here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbV14VK4QBM
According to our model, whenever quarterly GO grows at a slower pace less than GDP, the outlook for the next quarter’s GDP is downward. If GO outpaces GDP, it means a positive outlook for the next quarter’s GDP. For most of 2021 GO was growing faster than GDP, suggesting a strong recovery. But in the face of higher interest rates, price inflation, and continued supply-chain shortages, the outlook has turned slightly negative.
More economists are focusing on GO as a way to gauge the direction of the economy. They recognized gross output (GO) as the top line in national income accounting, and GDP is the bottom line. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus note in their book, A New Architecture for US National Accounts, “Both are required in a complete system of accounts.” As Steve Forbes states, “GDP is the X-ray of the economy; GO is the CAT-scan.”
In nominal terms, fourth-quarter 2021 GDP rose 13.8% and GO grew 11.1%. The Adjusted Gross Output (GO*) – which includes the gross wholesale and gross retail figures (included only as net figures in the GO reported by the BEA) – advanced 11.9% in the last quarter 2021. The difference between net and gross figures amounts to more than $10 trillion, which is missing from the government’s official GO figure.
Business Investment is Doing Better than Consumer Spending
One silver lining suggests that the slowdown will not turn into a full-blown recession: business-to-business (B2B) spending continues to outpace consumer spending. As the graph below shows, both are growing at a slower pace, but B2B is doing better than consumption. That’s positive for the future.
Contrary to views of many academic economists and wide-spread media reports, consumer spending does not drive the economy, and does not represent two-thirds of the economy. Using GO as a better and a more accurate measure of total spending in the economy, the business sector (B2B spending) is almost twice the size of consumer spending. Consumer spending is the effect, not the cause, of prosperity (Say’s law).
Therefore, our business-to-business (B2B) index is very useful for assessing the economy’s underlying health and the readiness to rebound after economic downturns. The B2B Index measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. In the fourth quarter 2021, B2B activity rose 13.5% on an annualized basis to $31.32 trillion in nominal terms. This growth is significantly faster than the growth of consumer spending, which increased 8.8% to $16.31 trillion in the fourth quarter. However, the discrepancy is even more pronounced in real terms. While real B2B activity expanded 6.5% to $25.82 trillion, real consumer spending expanded just 1.4% from $13.479 in Q3 to $13.53 trillion in the Q4.
“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it is more responsive to the boom-bust economic cycle than consumer spending,” stated Skousen. “Business spending continues to expand at a faster pace than consumer spending, which is one good indicator for the longer-term economic outlook.”
While GDP includes only a small portion of investment spending, Gross Output accounts for significantly more of the business investment outlays, which tend to indicate economic direction over extended periods.
The federal government will release the advance estimate for first-quarter 2022 GDP on April 28, 2022. The full release of Gross Output data and the third estimate of GDP are scheduled for June 29, 2022.
Important Note: We are hopeful that in the near future, the BEA will release GO at the same time as the first estimate of GDP for the quarter, not the third estimate. A simultaneous release date will be most helpful to economic forecasters.
Report on Various Sectors of the Economy
After the general decline in the first two periods of 2020 and a robust recovery in the second half of that year, most sectors of the economy continued to expand in 2021.
Following a rapid decline in the first half of 2020, the Mining sector continued its expansion with a 43% annualized growth rate in Q4 2021. This result was driven by the oil and gas extraction sub-segment, which expanded more than 56% over the previous period and which accounts for nearly 65% of the entire Mining sector. While the mining sector comprises only a 1.5% share of the overall economy as measured by GO, the sector represents one of the earliest stages of production. Therefore, we watch the expansion and contraction of the Mining segment as early indicators of what other sectors further down the supply chain might do in subsequent periods.
Following two periods of contracting at less than 2%, Manufacturing – the second largest segment of the economy with a 15.6% share – expanded more than 17% in the fourth quarter. While few of the sub-segments contracted – Computer and electronic products (-11.2%), Furniture and related products (-4.6%) – the Manufacturing segment expanded on the strength of some of its other sub-segments. The Fabricated metal products sub-segment grew 31%, Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts expanded 29.2%, Nonmetallic mineral products advanced 26.1%, and Electrical equipment, appliances, and components increased 25.3%.
The Retail trade sector expanded 9.6%, and the Wholesale trade grew 14.5%. Additionally, after two consecutive contraction periods the Construction sector, which accounts for nearly 5% of the economy, increased almost 10% in the fourth quarter.
Another small-share segment – 1.3% of the overall economy – in the early stages of production is the Agriculture sector, which has been contracting steadily over the past four quarters. However, the rate of contraction is getting smaller. After contracting 5.7% in Q1, 4.1% in Q2, and 3.6% in Q3 2021, the segment declined only 1.3% in the last period of 2021. Another segment that contracted in the fourth period was Management of companies and enterprises sector (-4.9%).
After contracting in four out of the last five periods, Federal government spending expanded nearly 3% in the last period of 2021. Despite a 1.2% reduction in National defense spending, the overall spending at the federal level increased of expanded spending on Nondefense items and Government enterprises.
While spending at the federal level expanded less than 3%, a 7.6% increase in government spending at state and local levels drove overall government spending to increase 6.1% for the last period of 2021.
Since contracting more than 17% in Q2 2020, government at the State and local levels has been expanding at an average annualized rate of 8.6% over the past six quarters. 
Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is not quite the same as the “bottom line” (profit, or net income) of an accounting statement, but rather the “value added” or the value of final use.
GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP.
About GO and B2B Index
Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out the supply chain and business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “That’s a big part of the economy, bigger than GDP itself. GO includes B2B activity that is vital to the production process. No one should ignore what is going on in the supply chain of the economy.”
Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). A new third edition was published in late 2015 and is now available on Amazon.
Click here: Structure of Production on Amazon
The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first output statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.
The BEA now defines GDP in terms of GO. GDP is defined as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy [GO] less the value of the goods and services used up in production (Intermediate Inputs or II].” See definitions at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm
With GO and GDP being produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”
Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”
For More Information
NEW! Emma Rothschild, “Where is Capital?” in Capitalism: A Journal of History and Economics 2:2 (Summer 2021), pp. 291-371. https://muse.jhu.edu/article/798746 “Essentially an attempt to apply ideas about gross output to the economic history of the industrial revolution.”
GO-Day podcast discussion panel hosted Mark Skousen that included Steve Forbes, Sean Flynn, Steve Hanke, and David Ranson, September 30, 2020: https://chapman.zoom.us/rec/share/KJ17YjuR_6zthmgOA5fNprv2e65F-jICOsf430bJvnu8qWzdPYPfTohPC48qRLe9.Q8rmnlXynnTN74Tv?startTime=1601488807000
Steve Forbes: What’s Ahead podcast. In this podcast, Steve Forbes discusses Gross Output with Mark Skousen on September 9, 2019: https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2019/09/09/were-using-the-wrong-measure-gdp-to-gauge-the-economys-real-health-mark-skousen/#35ff3d9a52fa
GO-Day podcast discussion panel hosted Mark Skousen that included Steve Forbes, Sean Flynn, Steve Hanke, and David Ranson, September 30, 2020: https://chapman.zoom.us/rec/share/KJ17YjuR_6zthmgOA5fNprv2e65F-jICOsf430bJvnu8qWzdPYPfTohPC48qRLe9.Q8rmnlXynnTN74Tv?startTime=1601488807000
The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=51&step=1#reqid=51&step=3&isuri=1&5102=15
For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:
Mark Skousen, “If GDP Lags, Watch the Economy Grow,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2018: https://www.grossoutput.com/2018/04/26/away-go-economy-growing-faster-expected/
Mark Skousen, “At Last, a Better Way to Economic Measure” lead editorial, Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2014: http://on.wsj.com/PsdoLM
Steve Forbes, Forbes Magazine (April 14, 2014): “New, Revolutionary Way To Measure The Economy Is Coming — Believe Me, This Is A Big Deal”: http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2014/03/26/this-may-save-the-economoy-from-keynesians-and-spend-happy-pols/
Mark Skousen, Forbes Magazine (December 16, 2013): “Beyond GDP: Get Ready For A New Way To Measure The Economy”: http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/29/beyond-gdp-get-ready-for-a-new-way-to-measure-the-economy/
Steve Hanke, Globe Asia (July 2014): “GO: J. M. Keynes Versus J.-B. Say,” http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/go-jm-keynes-versus-j-b-say
David Ranson, “Output growth data that the economy generates months earlier than GDP,” Economy Watch, July 24, 2017. HCWE & Co. http://www.hcwe.com/guest/EW-0717.pdf
Mark Skousen, “Linking Austrian Economics to Keynesian Economics,” Journal of Private Enterprise, Winter, 2015: http://journal.apee.org/index.php?title=Parte7_Journal_of_Private_Enterprise_vol_30_no_4.pdf
To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at mskousen@chapman.edu, or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at skousenpub@gmail.com.
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