This just out on WSJ.com – and will make the printed copy on April 5, 2024

The Wall Street Journal has accepted all four of my op eds on GO over the years.  They are believers!  

Slow GO May Mean a Recession Soon: GDP numbers look great, but a leading indicator signals trouble ahead.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/slow-go-may-mean-a-recession-soon-us-economy-real-gross-output-65c4f1fd?mod=commentary_article_pos3

This chart, derived from gross output (GO) data, summarized the article:

The federal government (BEA) has published GO quarterly since 2014…..and three Nobel Prize economists now recognize its value….but the AEA, the textbooks, and the financial media are slow to recognized that national income accounting now has a “top line” (GO) and a “bottom line” (GDP), just like financial statements are released every quarter by publicly traded companies….and they often tell very different stories.   

Last year the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics added it to its glossary:  

https://www.econlib.org/library/enc/grossoutput.html#:~:text=The%20Bureau%20of%20Economic%20Analysis,value%20added%20and%20intermediate%20inputs.%E2%80%9D

Economists are finally catching up with the finance and accounting profession.  As Bill Nordhaus says, “it’s been a long slog.” 

See https://www.grossoutput.com/2023/04/01/three-nobel-prize-winners-endorse-new-macro-statistic/